A continuous simulated run. Every quotable event is protected at its live quoted terms, then marked against the official result when it settles. Live prices; nothing is bought.
576
events settled
246
floor saves
34
open now
$197.85
our P&L, settled
2026-09-12 to 2026-09-29 UTC, first position opened to last settlement
We carry no outcome risk
Leg for leg, what we earn on a settled event must equal the published take: the hedge pays the floor, the cap slice pays the hedge, and nothing depends on who won.
$197.85
our P&L, settled
$197.85
take booked
$0.00
gap · holds
On 576 settled events our P&L is $197.85 and the take booked is $197.85: a gap of $0.00. The hedge layer carried no outcome risk.
Sports first
The product lives on game positions: MLB and NFL here. Crypto strikes keep the record moving overnight and are shown separately below.
225
games settled
34
open now
2.88%
quoted cost, of expected value
-1.59%
realized, protected minus naked
On the 225 settled, our P&L is $91.77 against $91.77 of take booked; users were paid $829.50 in credits at the tap.
Settled, most recent first
576 settled · 351 crypto · 192 MLB · 33 NFL
Eagles floor paid$69.37 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $3.37 paid at open
Ethereum $2,700 or above floor paid$42.55 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $6.55 paid at open
Colorado Rockies floor paid$36.08 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $6.08 paid at open
Bears won, capped$80.26 vs $150.00 nakedincl. $6.76 paid at open
Bitcoin $84,250 or above floor paid$23.57 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $4.07 paid at open
St. Louis Cardinals floor paid$31.70 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $7.70 paid at open
Broncos won, capped$85.93 vs $150.00 nakedincl. $4.93 paid at open
Bitcoin $83,250 or above won, capped$118.44 vs $150.00 nakedincl. $1.44 paid at open
Atlanta Braves floor paid$55.01 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $5.51 paid at open
Rams floor paid$56.62 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $5.62 paid at open
Bitcoin $82,750 or above won, capped$130.97 vs $150.00 nakedincl. $0.47 paid at open
Minnesota Twins won, capped$93.39 vs $150.00 nakedincl. $7.89 paid at open
Raiders won, capped$81.55 vs $150.00 nakedincl. $5.05 paid at open
Bitcoin $83,750 or above floor paid$74.20 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $3.70 paid at open
Kansas City Royals won, capped$82.26 vs $150.00 nakedincl. $5.76 paid at open
Cowboys floor paid$44.31 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $5.31 paid at open
Bitcoin $84,000 or above floor paid$69.77 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $3.77 paid at open
Los Angeles Angels floor paid$42.21 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $4.71 paid at open
Saints floor paid$57.07 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $3.07 paid at open
Ethereum $2,620 or above won, capped$131.53 vs $150.00 nakedincl. $1.03 paid at open
Miami Marlins won, capped$86.04 vs $150.00 nakedincl. $5.04 paid at open
Ravens won, capped$98.64 vs $150.00 nakedincl. $2.64 paid at open
Bitcoin $83,500 or above won, capped$129.42 vs $150.00 nakedincl. $0.42 paid at open
Detroit Tigers floor paid$50.51 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $5.51 paid at open
Buccaneers floor paid$52.62 vs $0.00 nakedincl. $4.62 paid at open
With and without protection
Protection paid the floor on 246 of 576 settled events (43%). Across everyone it cost $2,123.72, 4.3% of what the same positions paid unprotected; 3.1% was quoted up front. Quoted is the expectation at the market's odds; realized is what this sample did. Strikes on the same coin settle together, so a rally caps many at once and a drop pays many floors at once; the gap between the two closes as the book widens.
with protection, settled total$47,376.28
without protection, settled total$49,500.00
realizedprotection cost $2,123.72 across settled events; the floor is what it buys
quoted cost of protection3.1% of expected value, on average
hedged on the market's own No side388
hedged cross-venue on the same game222
hedge fillsat the visible book, at the terms quoted 342 recorded, all simulated
Where protection is cheap and where it is rich
The same book cut by how it was hedged and by league. EV cost is the quoted cost of protection at the market's own odds; user Δ is realized, protected minus naked, as a share of settled stake. Slices under 20 events show counts only.
slice
opened
settled
EV cost
user Δ
credits
our P&L
crypto
351
351
3.26%
-3.01%
$820.78
$106.08
sports, all leagues
259
225
2.88%
-1.59%
$829.50
$91.77
hedged on the market's own No side
388
386
3.52%
-3.49%
$886.65
$113.27
hedged cross-venue on the same game
222
190
2.38%
-0.36%
$763.63
$84.58
CRYPTO
351
351
3.26%
-3.01%
$820.78
$106.08
MLB
199
192
2.99%
-1.60%
$708.13
$77.68
NFL
60
33
2.51%
-1.55%
$121.37
$14.09
Protection is cheapest on NFL (2.51% of expected value quoted) and richest on CRYPTO (3.26%); the record-wide average is weighted by how many of each the scanner found, not by what a user would choose.
Open book
34 open · 27 NFL · 7 MLB
New York Yankees · locks Sep 27 3:20pm ETfloor $69.37 · up to $106.87
Steelers · locks Oct 1 8:15pm ETfloor $58.86 · up to $100.86
Baltimore Orioles · locks Sep 27 3:20pm ETfloor $52.62 · up to $87.12
Browns · locks Oct 1 8:15pm ETfloor $49.05 · up to $83.55
Atlanta Braves · locks Sep 29 2:00pm ETfloor $71.55 · up to $109.05
Colts · locks Oct 4 9:30am ETfloor $74.28 · up to $110.28
Houston Astros · locks Sep 29 5:00pm ETfloor $58.86 · up to $100.86
Commanders · locks Oct 4 9:30am ETfloor $41.05 · up to $81.55
Atlanta Braves · locks Sep 30 2:00pm ETfloor $52.13 · up to $94.13
Bills · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $76.00 · up to $112.00
Philadelphia Phillies · locks Sep 30 2:00pm ETfloor $52.13 · up to $94.13
Packers · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $52.13 · up to $94.13
Houston Astros · locks Sep 30 5:00pm ETfloor $59.01 · up to $101.01
Bears · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $63.96 · up to $102.96
Texans · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $58.36 · up to $100.36
Buccaneers · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $52.13 · up to $94.13
Rams · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $59.46 · up to $101.46
Cowboys · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $59.31 · up to $101.31
Bengals · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $57.74 · up to $99.74
Jaguars · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $50.24 · up to $84.74
Cardinals · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $49.05 · up to $83.55
Giants · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $55.50 · up to $97.50
Patriots · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $28.86 · up to $69.36
Eagles · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $49.05 · up to $83.55
Jets · locks Oct 4 1:00pm ETfloor $42.18 · up to $82.68